THE PRESIDENT SPEAKS, I THINK - AT 7:19 P.M. ET:  Mr. Obama's news conference, or commercial, last night was free of any real news, which is usual for these affairs.  But I think it was revealing in other ways.  Mr. Obama clearly believes he's on a mission from some higher authority - either the Lord or the Chicago City Council, to remake America, to transform what he believes is a society that must learn from our betters.

The most striking part of the performance was Mr. Obama's denial that he really, truly, cross-his-heart, wants to expand government.  He would have been happy to have just a few problems on his plate when he took office, the president said, but economic conditions forced him into sweeping-change mode.  But gosh darn, I don't want to expand government, or run car companies, or manage banks.

Then why, sir, are you doing it?

We have the political equivalent of "the Devil made me do it."  But the Devil didn't make Barack Obama do anything.  By substantial numbers, the American people have rejected, in polls, major parts of his economic program, yet these decisions go unreversed.  He just has to do it.  Nobody knows the trouble he's seen, nobody knows his sorrow.

More and more, you get the feeling that Obama is a gifted, yet cynical Chicago politician who knows how to speak middle and govern left.  Dick Morris has predicted that this cynicism will yet bring Mr. Obama down, as the American people inevitably assess what he's actually done:

...if voters differ so fundamentally with the president on the very essence of his program, why do they accord him high ratings? They are like the recently married bride who took her vows 100 days ago. It would be a disaster for her life if she decides that she really doesn't like her husband. But she keeps noticing things about him that she can't stand. It will be a while before she walks out the door or even comes to terms with her own doubts, but it is probably inevitable that she will.

For Americans to conclude that they disapprove of their president in the midst of an earth-shaking crisis is very difficult. But as Obama's daily line moves from "I inherited this mess" to "There are faint signs of light," the clock starts ticking. If there is no recovery for the next six months - and I don't think there will be - Obama will inevitably become part of the problem, not part of the solution.

Morris isn't always right.  After all, he wrote a book predicting that the 2008 election would be between Condi Rice and Hillary Clinton.  But I think he's right this time.  The question is whether Obama's clear personal appeal, especially to women, will win out over unpopular policies.

April 30, 2009